FTSE Upgrade 2026: ETF Inflows, Winning Stocks — Is Your Portfolio Positioned Correctly?

The 2025–2026 period marks a pivotal phase as Vietnam moves closer to a potential FTSE Emerging Market upgrade. However, an upgrade is not a single event — it represents a structural reallocation of global capital.

If Vietnam is upgraded, several institutions estimate that USD 2–4 billion of passive ETF inflows could enter the market in the initial phase. These flows will not be evenly distributed. Capital will concentrate only in stocks that meet international standards on liquidity, free float, and foreign ownership availability.

Therefore, the key question is not whether the market will rise — but whether:

Is your portfolio positioned where ETF capital is likely to flow?

The BeQ Superstar Index is designed to answer this question using data — not sentiment.

When a country is added to the FTSE Emerging Market index, ETFs tracking the benchmark must allocate capital according to index weights. This creates:

• Large-scale passive inflows
• Structural impact lasting multiple years
• A shift in market liquidity and valuation dynamics

Based on FTSE Russell observations and emerging market data, ETF inflows typically begin 6–12 months before the official upgrade.

Examples:

• Saudi Arabia & UAE: Many large-cap blue-chip stocks rallied strongly 9–12 months prior to the upgrade
• The majority of stocks outside ETF inclusion saw limited benefit

This implies that portfolio positioning is happening now — not after the upgrade.

Three key infrastructure factors are closely monitored by FTSE and global funds:

• KRX System → Modernizes trading architecture and improves market liquidity
• CCP (Central Counterparty) → Reduces systemic risk in line with global standards
• Non-pre-funding mechanism → Enables trading without full pre-funding requirements

These developments may not trigger short-term price movements, but they are decisive in determining whether ETF capital can enter Vietnam.

ETF inclusion follows a strict screening framework. In reality, most listed stocks fail to pass.

Core ETF Selection Criteria

Many investors assume an upgrade lifts the entire market. History suggests that most individual portfolios are not positioned in ETF-targeted stocks.

The BeQ Superstar Index does not attempt to predict market direction. Instead, it models the allocation logic of ETF capital to identify stocks that:

• Have a high probability of ETF inclusion
• Can remain in the FTSE basket over the long term
• Carry lower risk of “upgrade-expectation traps”

Screening methodology includes:

• Evaluating FTSE Emerging Market eligibility criteria
• Analyzing long-term liquidity and free-float sustainability
• Excluding stocks driven by short-term news catalysts
• Positioning portfolios along capital flow cycles

The objective is not to outperform the market through speed — but to stand where capital is structurally likely to arrive.

As illustrated in comparative performance data, while the broader market (VN-Index) delivered steady growth, a portfolio filtered using the BeQ Superstar methodology captured foreign capital flows more effectively, generating an 87.13% return — nearly double the benchmark.

Statistics across multiple emerging markets show:

• Only 35–45% of ETF-targeted stocks produce sustained alpha
• The remainder tend to move sideways once technical flows fade

Long-term simulation indicates that portfolios aligned with FTSE criteria demonstrate:

• Lower drawdowns
• More stable volatility
• Outperformance versus VN-Index over full market cycles

Sustainable alpha is not defined by short-term price increases — but by consistent outperformance over time.

In practice, the BeQ Superstar Index functions as:

• A filter for stocks with long-term upgrade-related tailwinds
• A risk-control tool against crowd-driven expectation trades
• A benchmark to measure portfolio exposure to ETF capital flows
• A positioning framework ahead of foreign capital allocation

An FTSE upgrade is not a short-term rally — it is a structural shift in global capital allocation.

The opportunity will favor investors who:

• Understand how ETFs select securities
• Identify companies that meet FTSE standards
• Position portfolios before capital flows materialize

When the upgrade occurs, the market will not wait for investors to prepare.
Portfolios already positioned correctly will benefit immediately.

The BeQ Superstar Index does not forecast the market.
It helps investors align portfolios with real capital flow structures ahead of the FTSE 2026 cycle.

Assess whether your portfolio is positioned within the ETF-targeted universe — before the market fully reflects it.

Contact BeQ Holdings for further information

• Hotline: 0941 753 139
• Email: contact@beqholdings.com
• Website: https://beqholdings.com/
• Track capital flows & index data in real time: https://dashboardlive.ccpi.vn/