In-depth Analysis of Goldman Sachs’ Gold Demand Chart

This chart reflects the trend in gold demand among central banks and financial institutions on the London OTC market amid global economic and geopolitical fluctuations. Let’s analyze it in more depth through the following aspects:

• Before 2022, the average demand was relatively low (~17 tonnes).
• After the freezing of the Russian Central Bank’s assets in 2022, gold demand surged dramatically.
• From 2023 to 2024, gold purchases showed strong fluctuations but remained at high levels.
• The forecast for 2025 indicates that demand is likely to continue rising, reaching 205 tonnes (117 tonnes excluding U.S. exports).

⇒ Conclusion: This surge suggests that gold is becoming a more significant reserve asset for central banks and financial institutions, especially during uncertain times.

• Following the freezing of Russian assets, gold demand skyrocketed.
• This reflects a significant shift in how nations and financial institutions approach foreign exchange reserves.
• Central banks may have increased gold purchases to:
  • Reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar and assets that can be frozen in geopolitical conflicts.
  • Protect the value of foreign exchange reserves from global economic policy fluctuations.

⇒ Conclusion: Buying gold has become a defensive strategy against sanctions and political instability.

• A key factor affecting the data is that 88 tonnes of gold were shipped from London to the U.S. and excluded from the report.
• Reason: Concerns about potential U.S. tariffs on gold.
• Goldman Sachs believes U.S. tariffs on gold are unlikely since gold is primarily a financial asset rather than an industrial input.

⇒ Conclusion: If U.S. tariffs on gold were implemented, this could create instability in the gold market, prompting financial institutions to seek alternative reserve strategies.

• GS Nowcast predicts 205 tonnes of gold will be purchased in January 2025 (117 tonnes excluding U.S. exports).
• This is a high figure, indicating strong gold demand.
• Potential factors driving this trend:
  • Global economic recession fears leading central banks to increase gold reserves.
  • Geopolitical instability (tensions between major powers, economic warfare).
  • Changes in foreign exchange reserves, with some countries shifting holdings from USD to gold.
  • S. Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate policy: If rates decrease, gold will become even more attractive.

⇒ Conclusion: If current conditions persist, gold demand could continue rising in 2025 and beyond.

• Gold price increases: When central bank gold demand rises sharply, gold prices may continue to trend upwards.
• Impact on the U.S. dollar: If more countries shift part of their foreign reserves to gold, this could weaken the USD’s dominance.
• Changes in national reserve policies: Central banks, especially in emerging markets or those facing sanctions, may increase gold holdings instead of USD or U.S. Treasuries.

⇒ Conclusion: Gold is likely to become an even more crucial part of national foreign reserve strategies.

1. Gold demand is rising sharply, especially after the freezing of Russian assets in 2022.
2. Central banks are actively accumulating gold to safeguard their reserves from political and economic risks.
3. The U.S. remains influential in the gold market, but concerns about tariffs could affect trade flows.
4. 2025 could be a strong growth year for gold, driven by economic recession fears, geopolitical tensions, and Fed policies.
5. The financial market could be deeply affected, from gold prices and USD valuation to national reserve strategies.

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